Toronto, Ontario — Whether electric vehicle adoption speeds up or slows down, EV production will be a major source of employment in Canada by 2040, a watchdog organization has found.
In a new report from Electric Mobility Canada, the non-profit considered three growth scenarios for the EV market in Canada and how each of these different scenarios would shape jobs, GDP and the broader mobility sector by 2040. For all three forecast scenario the report outlines potential outcomes depending on government policy, public sentiment, infrastructure, and market conditions.
The first scenario the report considered represented a future in which EV adoption moves slower than current expectations. In this case, electrified vehicle adoption would rise from 14% in 2026 to 39% by 2040. As a result, vehicle manufacturing in Canada could support 1.2 million jobs, though fewer than half of this workforce would be involved in EV production. In this scenario, EV sales would add about $60 billion to the Canadian economy in 2040.
According to the report, this scenario could become more likely if the issues caused by tariffs and poor charging infrastructure prove long lasting or if there is little battery technology development and minimal government support for the transition away from fossil fuels.
The second scenario considered by the watchdog organization is one in which electric vehicle adoption aligns with current expectations. In this case, Electric Mobility Canada researchers expect 1.3 million Canadians to be employed in vehicle manufacturing by 2040 with the majority of the workforce involved in EV production. According to the report, EV sales would reach $104 billion in 2040.
A third scenario considered what would happen if EV adoption accelerates faster than is expected. In this case, about 1.48 million Canadians could be employed in vehicle manufacturing by 2040 with about 1.43 million involved in EV production. According to the report, EV sales would reach $104 billion in 2040.
The report went on to suggest this scenario is more likely to come to pass if major breakthroughs are made in battery technologies and if federal and provincial governments pursue aggressive policies to encourage EV adoption.
